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{
    "url": "https://mailman.amsat.org/hyperkitty/api/list/[email protected]/email/JCSKINWLJGYNASZWPEUKFAG5L5XZKEN2/?format=api",
    "mailinglist": "https://mailman.amsat.org/hyperkitty/api/list/[email protected]/?format=api",
    "message_id": "[email protected]",
    "message_id_hash": "JCSKINWLJGYNASZWPEUKFAG5L5XZKEN2",
    "thread": "https://mailman.amsat.org/hyperkitty/api/list/[email protected]/thread/7MW6VXRSBXNTEDTA7AVIC6RB5XNOVI6S/?format=api",
    "sender": {
        "address": "g7hia (a) btinternet.com",
        "mailman_id": null,
        "emails": null
    },
    "sender_name": "John Heath",
    "subject": "[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay",
    "date": "2011-11-16T18:19:26Z",
    "parent": "https://mailman.amsat.org/hyperkitty/api/list/[email protected]/email/7MW6VXRSBXNTEDTA7AVIC6RB5XNOVI6S/?format=api",
    "children": [],
    "votes": {
        "likes": 0,
        "dislikes": 0,
        "status": "neutral"
    },
    "content": "Hi Jim,\n\nThanks for the update on your AMSAT Journal article.\nThere are several people on the bb who are following  this topic and are busy \nplotting data.\nAny futher thoughts you have, as we move towards January would, I am sure be of \ninterest.\n\n73 John G7HIA\n\n\n\n\n________________________________\nFrom: DeYoung James <[email protected]>\nTo: amsat-bb <[email protected]>\nSent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 17:29:31\nSubject: [amsat-bb] ARISSat-1 (37772) decay\n\nGreetings,\n \nFirst, thank you Mineo for reading the AMSAT Journal and making several of my \npapers available\non your web site.\nMy AMSAT Journal\npaper published in the March/April 2011 issue is actually still fairly valid\nfor the scenarios shown in the paper. The solar flux has turned out to be\nsomewhat higher than was used/predicted in the paper. This has caused the\natmospheric densities to be higher which results in higher decay rates. When I\nwrote the paper I had this nagging feeling that stopping the \nrelease height\nscenarios at 370-km was not going to be high enough. We are very fortunate that \nthe ISS was boosted to such a height before release of ARISSat-1 and not after\nrelease! \n \nThere is a\nvaluable lesson, I think, to be made with respect to predicting satellite decay\ndates far into the future. The future state of the atmosphere, i.e. the\natmospheric density that the satellite will pass through is poorly predictable\nin the long-term, say starting greater than a week or two into the future.\nPredictions of satellite decay dates months in the future should be\nevaluated with the understanding that your date of prediction errors may be\nlarge. The errors \nare due to the future uncertainties of the orbital path which\ngrow quickly with time in a prediction. The atmospheric density is not the only\nsource of error. Your orbit model, the integrator, and the accounting of the \ngravitational and\ndrag forces among others will affect your results.\nPredictions of\nsatellite decay dates are not do-and-forget. The general process is to make a\nprediction, get new measured observations of the height in the future, and at\nsome point re-do your prediction when the errors become significant to you. \nWith that all\nsaid here is my current prediction using the same tools used in the AMSAT J.\npaper and produced as of 2011 November 13th. The decay of ARISSat-1 (37772)\nwill happen nominally on 2012 January 30th with a 10% rule-of-thumb error\nallowance of 18 days around this date. The \nerrors may be larger than the rule-of-thumb indicates!\nJim, N8OQ\n_______________________________________________\nSent via [email protected]. Opinions expressed are those of the author.\nNot an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program!\nSubscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb\n\n",
    "attachments": []
}