14 Dec
2011
14 Dec
'11
3:04 p.m.
Greetings, It is time for another decay date prediction update. As the satellite has gotten lower the atmospheric drag has increased significantly. This prediction update uses solar data through 2011 Dec. 14. The fit only includes orbital height data between Dec. 9 and Dec. 14. The decay date now indicated is 2011 Dec. 31 with a rule-of-thumb error estimate of about +/- 3 days giving a decay date ranging between 2011 Dec 28 to 2012 Jan 3. Jim, N8OQ