Hi Henk and all!
Strangely enough, but honestly, I did not look at the graph. The problem with re-entry predictions is most treat it as a linear decay when in reality it's logarithmic. It compounds itself and progresses as times progresses. Sorry for not converting miles to KM, but at 100 miles, depending on it's mass and surface area, time is running out and fast. At 90 miles heating is increasing dramatically. Between 80 to 90 miles, it has re-entered, depending on how "thick" the atmosphere is at that time. Remember, at solar maximum the atmoshere is much thicker due to the increase of the solar activity. It's quite possible that if we were currently at solar maximum, ANDE would have been history by now.
Not to brag, boast or claim any superior powers :), I did manage to come in 2nd place in the Chicken Little contest in predicting the re-entry of the satellite Solar Max. I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of Oscar-9.
73,
Jeff WB3JFS
----- Original Message ----- From: "Henk, PA3GUO" hamoen@iae.nl To: amsat-bb@amsat.org Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 12:53 PM Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
Hi Jeff,
That's an extreme accurate prediction ! Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the graph' ! How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?
73 - Henk, PA3GUO
In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry prediction for ANDE is:
December 22, 2007 1935z.
Jeff WB3JFS
From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
(based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it had reached 175 km).
Henk, PA3GUO