Ed,
Am I doing something wrong?
Probably. :)
There are basically 3 variables: Keps, QTH, Time.
You have updated the keps, which pretty much eliminates that. However, you may be actually using old default keps. This can happen with some programs depending on how you configure the source files. Use the keps edit function of each program to check the reference date and time.
Most likely, you have the wrong QTH in one or both programs. Given the various possible formats, including whether you use N/S or +/-, for instance, this is easy to do. For graphics programs, there should be a mark at your QTH.
As for time, make certain that both programs are set to display in the same time. That is, local vs. UTC. Of course if the QTH is wrong, the time will be wrong.
Ed, in 20+ years, I have managed to make all these mistakes and more repeatedly, so I am not poking fun at you!! My own solution is to spend a few bucks and get a copy of Instantrack from AMSAT. It is a bulletproof program, easy to configure, and easy to check whether you are using the keps you think you are. It doesn't work well in real time mode within Windows because of RT clock issues, but it works fine for pass prediction, and allows you to break the tie between the other two programs.
Good luck,
Alan WA4SCA