PLEASE!

All of you that are capable of trying to predict this re-entry, keep doing it.

I think it would be awesome if we were able to actually see it come back home!

Joe WB9SBD

On 12/2/2021 5:18 PM, [email protected] wrote:
I think that estimate may be close. Thanks Pedro for your comment.

I also have Satevo (V 0.51), but I want to wait until we are midway through December for Satevo to make a better estimate. 

Ray Hoad
WA5QGD
AMSAT-NA Orbital Elements Manager


Ray, Bob, interesting comment,

Satevo predicts NO-84 reentry on Dec-31-2021 at 1:30z

Obj       #         Epoch          Decay        (Date)
15025D    40654   21329.440610   21365.054941  (2021 December 31)

Satevo available at http://amsat.org.ar/satevo.zip just needs last TLE file.

73, lu7abf, Pedro

On 12/2/21, [email protected] <[email protected]> wrote:
We still have some live left for NO-84 (PSAT), Cat ID 40654.



Based on past experience, when an amateur satellite’s drag rises above the
0.01 magnitude, the satellite is usually getting close to reentry. Some have
climbed back up for a while. But, as a rule of thumb, 0.01 drag is the point
I start watching a satellite’s drag. Almost all amateur satellites have a
mean motion of at least 16 when they decay.



The current TLE shows NO-84 (PSAT), Cat ID 40654, with a drag of 0.00320060
and a mean motion of 15.99945301. Getting close.


For example, here are the drag values for a few satellites the day they
deorbited:

SAT            Cat ID  drag          Mean Motion

==================================================

NEPALISAT1     44331   0.04661449    16.30483242
RAVAANA        44329   0.04382427    16.28919678
UGUISU         44330   0.06186538    16.33294840
CP9            44360   0.01594744    16.12399308
TW-1C          40926   0.05243455    16.31196197
MO-105         44832   0.11453400    16.41416157
MO-106         44830   0.14504533    16.46538413
ENDURO SAT ONE 43551   0.12819970    16.45548142
EQUISAT        43552   0.10316869    16.43170683
SWAMPSAT       45115   0.19123998    16.36852634
PWSAT 2        43814   0.25888781    16.21683976



Per above, several have hung on for another order of magnitude of

drag. It would be very difficult to estimate a deorbit time based solely on
drag. But, all have had a mean motion in excess of 16 when they decayed.



Ray Hoad

WA5QGD

AMSAT-NA Orbital Elements Manager





From: Robert Bruninga [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2021 14:48
To: amsat bb <[email protected]>
Cc: Robert Bruninga <[email protected]>
Subject: [AMSAT-BB] APRS satellite Lifetimes?



Joe, KM1P reminded us of the decay of NO-84 soon.

It woiuld be nice to get an assessment of the remaining lifetimes of the

remaining APRS satellites listed on http://aprs.org/sats.html



Since I retired (and health issues),, I wont be building any replacements

and have not been paying attention.



Joe wanna take a crack at it?

Bob


On Wed, Dec 1, 2021 at 11:05 AM Joseph B. Fitzgerald  wrote:
There is a non Russian object threatening NO-84, specifically the earth's


        
atmosphere.    Mean motion is now dangerously close to 16!   Time for a

        
Chicken Little contest?

de KM1P Joe


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