Orbit Decay - SatPC32, Calsky, DK3WN/N8MH, Orbitron
Some of you may remember the Chicken Little Contest run by Alan a while back. I have taken another look at decay using the XATCOBEO satellite as an example.
My first try at a program calculated the decay in early June 2014. I am all but positive this is several weeks too soon.
On the other end of the spectrum SatPC32/WinAOS shows it up and running well into 2084. I am as positive as I can be that this is many decades too late.
Orbitron shows it still running on Sept 8 2014 but at an altitude of only 109km. I believe this is a bit late as 160km is usually considered to be the point of no return.
Calsky predicts decay on 14 August 2014 with a +/- of 15 days Smart guy to hedge his bets with the +/- range.
DK3WN predicts decay on 31 July 2014 This falls into the +/- range of Calsky and since our own N8MH is an editor on this site it is probably the closest.
With LEO satellites rapidly becoming as common as iPads they provide interesting subjects for decay predictions and possible Chicken Little contests.
Is there any formal definition/announcement of the actual decay or are satellites like old soldiers and just fade away ?
73 W9KE Tom Doyle
Hello Tom, the program WinAOS gives you a quick overview of the satellite passes in the near future. The program is not designed for long term calculations. It doesn't use the SGP4/SDP4 model as SatPC32 and WinListen do but uses rather simple calculation routines. Therefore use WinListen or the "Preview" function of SatPC32 for more precise calculations. 73s, Erich, DK1TB
Am 02.06.2014 00:10, schrieb Thomas Doyle:
Some of you may remember the Chicken Little Contest run by Alan a while back. I have taken another look at decay using the XATCOBEO satellite as an example.
My first try at a program calculated the decay in early June 2014. I am all but positive this is several weeks too soon.
On the other end of the spectrum SatPC32/WinAOS shows it up and running well into 2084. I am as positive as I can be that this is many decades too late.
Orbitron shows it still running on Sept 8 2014 but at an altitude of only 109km. I believe this is a bit late as 160km is usually considered to be the point of no return.
Calsky predicts decay on 14 August 2014 with a +/- of 15 days Smart guy to hedge his bets with the +/- range.
DK3WN predicts decay on 31 July 2014 This falls into the +/- range of Calsky and since our own N8MH is an editor on this site it is probably the closest.
With LEO satellites rapidly becoming as common as iPads they provide interesting subjects for decay predictions and possible Chicken Little contests.
Is there any formal definition/announcement of the actual decay or are satellites like old soldiers and just fade away ?
73 W9KE Tom Doyle _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
Thanks Erich.
On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 3:46 AM, Erich Eichmann erich.eichmann@t-online.de wrote:
Hello Tom, the program WinAOS gives you a quick overview of the satellite passes in the near future. The program is not designed for long term calculations. It doesn't use the SGP4/SDP4 model as SatPC32 and WinListen do but uses rather simple calculation routines. Therefore use WinListen or the "Preview" function of SatPC32 for more precise calculations. 73s, Erich, DK1TB
Am 02.06.2014 00:10, schrieb Thomas Doyle:
Some of you may remember the Chicken Little Contest run by Alan a while back. I have taken another look at decay using the XATCOBEO satellite as an example.
My first try at a program calculated the decay in early June 2014. I am all but positive this is several weeks too soon.
On the other end of the spectrum SatPC32/WinAOS shows it up and running well into 2084. I am as positive as I can be that this is many decades too late.
Orbitron shows it still running on Sept 8 2014 but at an altitude of only 109km. I believe this is a bit late as 160km is usually considered to be the point of no return.
Calsky predicts decay on 14 August 2014 with a +/- of 15 days Smart guy to hedge his bets with the +/- range.
DK3WN predicts decay on 31 July 2014 This falls into the +/- range of Calsky and since our own N8MH is an editor on this site it is probably the closest.
With LEO satellites rapidly becoming as common as iPads they provide interesting subjects for decay predictions and possible Chicken Little contests.
Is there any formal definition/announcement of the actual decay or are satellites like old soldiers and just fade away ?
73 W9KE Tom Doyle _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
participants (2)
-
Erich Eichmann -
Thomas Doyle