ANDE is now at ~202 km height.
On my website I updated the plotted height, and its perfectly following the shape of the predictions. Yet, a few dates behind.
http://home.vianetworks.nl/users/hamoen/pa3guo/ande_predict_pa3guo_18dec2007...
From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
(based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it had reached 175 km).
Also today QSOs have been made. I see DD6UBW and OK1DNT for example.
Henk, PA3GUO http://www.qsl.net/pa3guo (my satellite weblog) http://www.ande-deorbit.com (the AWARD site, have a look for the details) http://web.ew.usna.edu/~bruninga/ande-ops.html (Bob's official website)
In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry prediction for ANDE is:
December 22, 2007 1935z.
Jeff WB3JFS
----- Original Message ----- From: "Henk, PA3GUO" hamoen@iae.nl To: amsat-bb@amsat.org Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 11:59 AM Subject: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
ANDE is now at ~202 km height.
On my website I updated the plotted height, and its perfectly following the shape of the predictions. Yet, a few dates behind.
http://home.vianetworks.nl/users/hamoen/pa3guo/ande_predict_pa3guo_18dec2007...
From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
(based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it had reached 175 km).
Also today QSOs have been made. I see DD6UBW and OK1DNT for example.
Henk, PA3GUO http://www.qsl.net/pa3guo (my satellite weblog) http://www.ande-deorbit.com (the AWARD site, have a look for the details) http://web.ew.usna.edu/~bruninga/ande-ops.html (Bob's official website)
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Hi Jeff,
That's an extreme accurate prediction ! Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the graph' ! How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?
73 - Henk, PA3GUO
In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry prediction for ANDE is:
December 22, 2007 1935z.
Jeff WB3JFS
From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
(based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it had reached 175 km).
Henk, PA3GUO
Hi Henk and all!
Strangely enough, but honestly, I did not look at the graph. The problem with re-entry predictions is most treat it as a linear decay when in reality it's logarithmic. It compounds itself and progresses as times progresses. Sorry for not converting miles to KM, but at 100 miles, depending on it's mass and surface area, time is running out and fast. At 90 miles heating is increasing dramatically. Between 80 to 90 miles, it has re-entered, depending on how "thick" the atmosphere is at that time. Remember, at solar maximum the atmoshere is much thicker due to the increase of the solar activity. It's quite possible that if we were currently at solar maximum, ANDE would have been history by now.
Not to brag, boast or claim any superior powers :), I did manage to come in 2nd place in the Chicken Little contest in predicting the re-entry of the satellite Solar Max. I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of Oscar-9.
73,
Jeff WB3JFS
----- Original Message ----- From: "Henk, PA3GUO" hamoen@iae.nl To: amsat-bb@amsat.org Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 12:53 PM Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
Hi Jeff,
That's an extreme accurate prediction ! Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the graph' ! How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?
73 - Henk, PA3GUO
In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry prediction for ANDE is:
December 22, 2007 1935z.
Jeff WB3JFS
From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
(based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it had reached 175 km).
Henk, PA3GUO
I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of Oscar-9.
Hi Jeff,
Wow, that brings back memories! I made the last contact on Oscar-9 before it re-entered...I forgot with whom I made the contact, and those log books are somewhere in the garage!
If he is reading this, remind me!!
It made our newsletter at the time, not called the OSCAR JOURNAL at the time, I think just OSCAR Newsletter...Got those in the garage, somewhere, also....
73, Dave, WB6LLO dguimon1@san.rr.com
Disagree: I learn....
Pulling for P3E...
Hi Dave,
Are your sure your talking about the right OSCAR? Maybe OSCAR-10? The reason I ask is OSCAR-9 was a telemetry only satellite with no transponder so I think it would be tought to make a QSo through it. :) OSCAR-9 was roughly the same as the currently orbiting OSCAR-11.
If I recall correctly, Vern "Rip" Riportella used the Chicken Little concept and turned it into a contest with quite a few partaking in it. There were no prizes of any sorts, just the "thrill" of getting your name and call published. :)
73,
Jeff WB3JFS
----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Guimont" dguimon1@san.rr.com To: "Jeff Yanko" wb3jfs@cox.net Cc: amsat-bb@amsat.org Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 2:30 PM Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] Re: ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of Oscar-9.
Hi Jeff,
Wow, that brings back memories! I made the last contact on Oscar-9 before it re-entered...I forgot with whom I made the contact, and those log books are somewhere in the garage!
If he is reading this, remind me!!
It made our newsletter at the time, not called the OSCAR JOURNAL at the time, I think just OSCAR Newsletter...Got those in the garage, somewhere, also....
73, Dave, WB6LLO dguimon1@san.rr.com Disagree: I learn.... Pulling for P3E...
Are your sure your talking about the right OSCAR? Maybe OSCAR-10? The reason I ask is OSCAR-9 was a telemetry only satellite with no transponder so I think it would be tought to make a QSo through it. :) OSCAR-9 was roughly the same as the currently orbiting OSCAR-11.
If I recall correctly, Vern "Rip" Riportella used the Chicken Little concept and turned it into a contest with quite a few partaking in it. There were no prizes of any sorts, just the "thrill" of getting your name and call published. :)
Repeating, you are absolutely correct. It was telemetry only and that I was the last one to record... I put it on disc, and mailed it to Frank Sperber DL6DNB, one of the big guns in hamsats in Germany...
I found all records, and they show my telemetry submission was the last recorded on 13oct89 @ 0529z.
I cannot find a duplicate disk, but I do have a paper copy of that last telemetry...
Leanore and I both entered the "chicken little" contests for both Oscar 9 and Salut 7. Don't know who won, but think one of us came in second for the Oscar 9 guess....
I'll take some pictures of my documentation for those interested, and put them on my web site....My paper graphing is a sight to behold!!!
Tnx fer the reminder, Jeff, memories, wow!!! Turns out to be my big gift for Christmas...
73, Dave, WB6LLO dguimon1@san.rr.com
Disagree: I learn....
Pulling for P3E...
Hi Dave,
FB on being the last to record UO-9. Glad to see there are some that like to keep a maticulate log of data on events. That person, or somebody interested in researching the topic or event later can learn a few things that might've been over looked.
I keep thinking I came in second for the UO-9 Chicken Little Contest, but I may well have come in third or fourth place. I do recall seeing the info somewhere and I keep thinking the top 3. :)
I'm glad to have given you the "reminders" in this event and it seems your sitting on quite a bit of data from this bird and that event.
Anyhow, here is a synopsis I came up with from the data provided from the last keps known of UO-9. Sorry I didn't put everything in either metric or English measurements, but this doc was created within a couple days of the decay.
73,
Jeff WB3JFS
----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Guimont" dguimon1@san.rr.com To: "Jeff Yanko" wb3jfs@cox.net Cc: amsat-bb@amsat.org Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2007 11:10 AM Subject: Oscar 9 Re-entry
Are your sure your talking about the right OSCAR? Maybe OSCAR-10? The reason I ask is OSCAR-9 was a telemetry only satellite with no transponder so I think it would be tought to make a QSo through it. :) OSCAR-9 was roughly the same as the currently orbiting OSCAR-11.
If I recall correctly, Vern "Rip" Riportella used the Chicken Little concept and turned it into a contest with quite a few partaking in it. There were no prizes of any sorts, just the "thrill" of getting your name and call published. :)
Repeating, you are absolutely correct. It was telemetry only and that I was the last one to record... I put it on disc, and mailed it to Frank Sperber DL6DNB, one of the big guns in hamsats in Germany...
I found all records, and they show my telemetry submission was the last recorded on 13oct89 @ 0529z.
I cannot find a duplicate disk, but I do have a paper copy of that last telemetry...
Leanore and I both entered the "chicken little" contests for both Oscar 9 and Salut 7. Don't know who won, but think one of us came in second for the Oscar 9 guess....
I'll take some pictures of my documentation for those interested, and put them on my web site....My paper graphing is a sight to behold!!!
Tnx fer the reminder, Jeff, memories, wow!!! Turns out to be my big gift for Christmas...
73, Dave, WB6LLO dguimon1@san.rr.com Disagree: I learn.... Pulling for P3E...
FB on being the last to record UO-9.
I keep thinking I came in second for the UO-9 Chicken Little Contest, but I may well have come in third or fourth place. I do recall seeing the info somewhere and I keep thinking the top 3. :)
I'm glad to have given you the "reminders" in this event and it seems your sitting on quite a bit of data from this bird and that event.
That data is so similar to what I have I cannot believe it!
And we did it with little or no "tools" that exist today...A real pursuer, today, should come within seconds!! And ye gods, readers I know the variables that exist!!!
I've encapsulated the stuff I have, and will put it on my websiite with a notice here...
73, Dave, WB6LLO dguimon1@san.rr.com
Disagree: I learn....
Pulling for P3E...
Right !
In that case we will really this as the most likely time of de-orbit. ... only 4 days left for some final QSOs.
Henk
Hi Henk and all!
Strangely enough, but honestly, I did not look at the graph. The problem with re-entry predictions is most treat it as a linear decay when in reality it's logarithmic. It compounds itself and progresses as times progresses. Sorry for not converting miles to KM, but at 100 miles, depending on it's mass and surface area, time is running out and fast. At 90 miles heating is increasing dramatically. Between 80 to 90 miles, it has re-entered, depending on how "thick" the atmosphere is at that time. Remember, at solar maximum the atmoshere is much thicker due to the increase of the solar activity. It's quite possible that if we were currently at solar maximum, ANDE would have been history by now.
Not to brag, boast or claim any superior powers :), I did manage to come in 2nd place in the Chicken Little contest in predicting the re-entry of the satellite Solar Max. I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of Oscar-9.
73,
Jeff WB3JFS
----- Original Message ----- From: "Henk, PA3GUO" hamoen@iae.nl To: amsat-bb@amsat.org Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 12:53 PM Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
Hi Jeff,
That's an extreme accurate prediction ! Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the graph' ! How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?
73 - Henk, PA3GUO
In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry prediction for ANDE is:
December 22, 2007 1935z.
Jeff WB3JFS
From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
(based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it had reached 175 km).
Henk, PA3GUO
participants (3)
-
Dave Guimont -
Henk, PA3GUO -
Jeff Yanko